نتیحه نظر سنجی آمریکایی ها در مورد انتخابات ریاست جمهوری ایران سه هفته قبل از انتخابات.
بر اساس این نظر سنجی که قبل از مناظره ها انجام شده است در کل کشور 34 درصد به احمدی نژاد، 14 درصد به موسوی، 2 درصد به مهدی کروبی و 1 درصد به رضایی رای خواهند داد.
در این نظر سنجی آمده است که علیرغم اینکه خیلی روی آذری بودن میر حسین موسوی مانور داده شده است، اما نتیجه نطرسنجی نشان می دهد که فقط 16 درصد آذری ها به میر حسین موسوی رای می دهند و 31 درصد به احمدی نژاد رای خواهند داد.
In The Presidential Elections, is there a candidate NOT on the ballot who
نظر سنجي پيرامون انتخابات رياست جمهوري در ايران
در تازه ترين نظر سنجي انجام شده در سرتاسر ايران و قبل از انتخابات رياست جمهوري در 12 جون 2009 اكثر ايراني ها گفته اند كه به رييس جمهور فعلي يعني آقاي احمدي نژاد راي خواهند داد.
… اين نظر سنجي انجام شده از سوي مركز « فرداي بدون وحشت» از جمله نظر سنجي هايي است كه پيشتر از سوي مركز افكار سنجيTFT، بنياد آمريكاي جديد و KA Europe SPRL تهيه شده است.
انجام نظر سنجي هاي غير مميزي و گسترده در ايران نادر است. معمولا افكار سنجي در ايران يا از سوي دولت و يا گروههاي ذينفع وابسته به دولت هدايت و يا نظارت مي گردند و از اينرو قابل اعتماد نيستند. بالعكس نظر سنجي ما كه سومين نظر سنجي در خلال دو سال گذشته مي باشد از طريق تماس تلفني در داخل ايران و در فاصله روزهاي 11 تا 20 ماه مي 2009 (21 لغايت 30 ارديبهشت 1388) از 1001 نفر در 30 استان ايران انجام شده و ضريب خطاي آن 1/3 درصد مثبت و منفي مي باشد. اين نظر سنجي در پي نظر سنجي هاي قبلي دو مركز TFT و KA صورت مي گيرد كه قبلا در ماه مارس 2008 و جون 2007 انجام گرفت و از زمان سپتامبر 2002 براي اولين بار بود كه سوال هاي بحث برانگيز مشابهي را مطرح نمود. منابع مالی اين نظر سنجي را صندوق برادران راكفلر تامين كرده است. انجام اين نظر سنجي از سوي TFT نه تنها بدنبال دو نظر سنجي قبلي در ايران صورت مي گيرد، بلكه از سال 2005 تا كنون بيش از 30 نظر سنجي ديگر را در سراسر جهان اسلام انجام داده است.
ايرانيان نسبت به انتخاب مجدد رييس جمهور احمدي نژاد نظر مساعد دارند.
هنگامي كه نظر سنجي ما در كارزار مبارزات رياست جمهوري صورت گرفت، 34 درصد ايرانيان مورد سوال قرار گرفته اظهار داشتند كه آنان به رييس جمهور فعلي يعني آقاي احمدي نژاد راي خواهند داد. آقاي مير حسين موسوي رقيب نزديك احمدي نژاد، انتخاب 14 درصد مردم بود و 27 درصد نيز اظهار داشتند كه هنوز نمي دانند به چه كسي راي خواهند داد. ساير رقباي احمدي نژاد يعني مهدي كروبي و محسن رضايي نيز به ترتيب انتخاب هاي 2 و 1 درصد مردم بودند. …
89 درصد ايراني ها مي گويند كه در انتخابات شركت خواهند كرد. اين نظر سنجي نشان مي دهد كه 87 درصد ايراني ها، 94 درصد آذري زبانها و 90 درصد ساير قوميت ها قصد مشاركت در انتخابات را دارند. به بياني ديگر از هر 10 ايراني، 7 نفر فكر مي كنند كه انتخابات آزاد و عادلانه خواهد بود، در حالي كه فقط يك نفر از هر 10 تن چنين باوري ندارد. روند كنوني نشان مي دهد كه هيچ يك از نامزدها احتمالا موفق به كسب 50 درصد آراي مورد نياز براي آن كه بطور خودكار به عنوان پيروز قلمداد شود را كسب نخواهد كرد. اين بدان معناست كه احتمالا انتخابات با حضور احمدي نژاد و مير حسين موسوي به دور دوم كشيده خواهد شد. در انتخابات رياست جمهوري سال 2005، هاشمي رفسنجاني كه در دور اول پيشتاز بود در دور دوم انتخابات را به احمدي نژاد واگذار نمود و از زمان آغاز انقلاب اسلامي سابقه نداشته است رييس جمهور در قدرت در دور دوم رياست جمهوري شكست بخورد.
در داخل ايران توجه قابل ملاحظه اي به پيشينه آذري بودن آقاي موسوي شده و تاكيد بر هويت آذري وي ممكن است آراي آذري زبانها را كسب كند. نتيجه نظر سنجي ما نشان مي دهد كه فقط 16 درصد ايرانيان آذري گفته اند كه به موسوي راي خواهند داد و برعكس 31 درصد آذري ها مي گويند كه به احمدي نژاد راي خواهند داد.
Executive Summary:
In a new public opinion poll across Iran before the critical upcoming June 12, 2009 Presidential elections, a plurality of Iranians said they would vote for incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Iranians also continue overwhelmingly to favor better relations with the United States and would like to directly elect their Supreme Leader in a free vote. The desire for improved American relations and a more open and democratic system in Iran have been consistent findings in all our surveys of Iran over the past two years.
These are among the many results of a new nationwide public opinion survey of Iran conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion (“TFT”), the New America Foundation, and KA Europe SPRL (“KA”).
Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, polls in Iran are either conducted or monitored by the Iranian government and other affiliated interest groups, and can be untrustworthy. By contrast, our poll—the third in a series over the past two years—was conducted by telephone inside Iran over May 11th to 20th, 2009, with 1,001 interviews proportionally distributed covering all 30 provinces of Iran, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. Full survey results and methodology follow. This survey tracks earlier nationwide surveys of Iran also conducted by TFT and KA in March 2008 and June 2007, which was the first to ask similar controversial questions since September 2002.
Funding for the survey was provided by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. The survey follows not only two prior polls of Iran, but also more than thirty similar surveys throughout the Muslim world by TFT since 2005.
Iranians Favor President Ahmadinejad’s Re-Election
At the stage of the campaign for President when our poll was taken, 34 percent of Iranians surveyed said they will vote for incumbent President Ahmadinejad. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s closest rival, Mir Hussein Moussavi, was the choice of 14 percent, with 27 percent stating that they still do not know who they will vote for.
President Ahmadinejad’s other rivals, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen Rezai, were the choice of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
A close examination of our survey results reveals that the race may actually be closer than a first look at the numbers would indicate. More than 60 percent of those who state they don’t know who they will vote for in the Presidential elections reflect individuals who favor political reform and change in the current system.
89 percent of Iranians say that they will cast a vote in the upcoming Presidential elections. The poll shows that 87 percent of Persians, 94 percent of Azeris and around 90 percent of all other ethnicities intend to vote in the upcoming elections.
About seven in ten Iranians think the elections will be free and fair, while only one in ten thinks they will not be free and fair.
The current mood indicates that none of the candidates will likely pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; meaning that a second round runoff between the two highest finishers, as things stand, Mr. Ahmadinejad and Mr. Moussavi, is likely. In the 2005 Presidential elections, the leader in the first round, Hashemi Rafsanjani, lost to his runner-up, Mr. Ahmadinejad, in the second round run off—though an incumbent has never been defeated in a Presidential election since the beginning of the Islamic Republic.
Inside Iran, considerable attention has been given to Mr. Moussavi’s Azeri background, emphasizing the appeal his Azeri identity may have for Azeri voters.
The results of our survey indicate that only 16 percent of Azeri Iranians indicate they will vote for Mr. Moussavi. By contrast, 31 percent of the Azeris claim they will vote for Mr. Ahmadinejad.
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مطلبی از واشنگتن پست در همین ارتباط:
The Washington Post
The Iranian People Speak
By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty
Monday, June 15, 2009
The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin — greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday’s election.
While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad’s principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran’s provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
The breadth of Ahmadinejad’s support was apparent in our preelection survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over Mousavi.
Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.
The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.
Some might argue that the professed support for Ahmadinejad we found simply reflected fearful respondents› reluctance to provide honest answers to pollsters. Yet the integrity of our results is confirmed by the politically risky responses Iranians were willing to give to a host of questions. For instance, nearly four in five Iranians — including most Ahmadinejad supporters — said they wanted to change the political system to give them the right to elect Iran’s supreme leader, who is not currently subject to popular vote. Similarly, Iranians chose free elections and a free press as their most important priorities for their government, virtually tied with improving the national economy. These were hardly «politically correct» responses to voice publicly in a largely authoritarian society.
Indeed, and consistently among all three of our surveys over the past two years, more than 70 percent of Iranians also expressed support for providing full access to weapons inspectors and a guarantee that Iran will not develop or possess nuclear weapons, in return for outside aid and investment. And 77 percent of Iranians favored normal relations and trade with the United States, another result consistent with our previous findings.
Iranians view their support for a more democratic system, with normal relations with the United States, as consonant with their support for Ahmadinejad. They do not want him to continue his hard-line policies. Rather, Iranians apparently see Ahmadinejad as their toughest negotiator, the person best positioned to bring home a favorable deal — rather like a Persian Nixon going to China.
Allegations of fraud and electoral manipulation will serve to further isolate Iran and are likely to increase its belligerence and intransigence against the outside world. Before other countries, including the United States, jump to the conclusion that the Iranian presidential elections were fraudulent, with the grave consequences such charges could bring, they should consider all independent information. The fact may simply be that the reelection of President Ahmadinejad is what the Iranian people wanted.
Ken Ballen is president of Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism. Patrick Doherty is deputy director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. The groups› May 11-20 polling consisted of 1,001 interviews across Iran and had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
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Mohammad Hassan Ghadiri Abyaneh (TV) دکتر محمد حسن قدیری ابیانه 